After the market flush earlier this week, Bitcoin has rallied above USD 100,000. Inflation indicators in the US and China were either in line with expectations or worse than expected. Altcoin analysis: AAVE and ONDO
On December 10th, we witnessed a massive deleveraging event in the crypto market, with over $1.5 billion of long-term exposure wiped off the market's books. However, this is a classic example of a market situation where real demand (spot buyers) was absent and FOMO chasing leveraged traders were betting on high prices.
This is a common strategy in bull markets, and we've already seen significant recoveries. Bitcoin is currently trading at over $100,000.
It would have been painful to be in the camp of leveraged long traders, but we should expect something like this to happen again. As always, opportunities can present themselves during times of low prices like this.
Inflation subsides
This week witnessed China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate of 0.2%, well below the expected 0.4%. This is a 50% lower shift than the market expected.
The US shares similar positive sentiment on inflation, with year-over-year CPI growth of 2.7%, as expected.
Bitwise’s 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2025
Bitwise is the world's leading crypto index fund manager. This year, the company joined BlackRock, Fidelity and others to launch Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange traded funds (ETFs).
This week they withdrew their 2025 predictions. This is a very interesting read and in my opinion pretty spot on.
Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000. Prediction 2: Bitcoin ETFs will see more inflows in 2025 than in 2024. Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage, with its stock price exceeding $700 per share. Prediction 4: 2025 will be the “Year of the Crypto IPO,” with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the US. Prediction 5: Tokens launched by AI agents will lead an even bigger memecoin mania in 2024. Prediction 6: The number of countries with that many Bitcoins will double. Prediction 7: Coinbase will join the S&P 500, MicroStrategy will join the Nasdaq-100, and (almost) every US investor will have crypto exposure added to their portfolio. Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax guidelines for cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, allowing billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets. Prediction 9: If the US passes the long-awaited stablecoin bill, stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion. Prediction 10: As Wall Street’s support for cryptocurrencies grows, the value of tokenized real world assets (RWA) will exceed $50 billion. Bonus prediction: In 2029, Bitcoin will overtake the $18 trillion gold market and trade at over $1 million per Bitcoin.
Fear and Greed is now 80 – Extreme Greed.
Related: Bitcoin strategy puts MicroStrategy's listing on the Nasdaq index in jeopardy
Bitcoin – BTC
As the end of the quarter nears, it's useful to use the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) tool, anchored at the beginning of the quarter, to see what the market might consider to be the key levels going forward.
This indicator provides bands that show how much the current price is growing compared to the average volume-weighted price.
Source – TradingView – BTC/USDT
bullish scenario
As price continues to make higher highs and lower lows, targets like +2 standard deviations ($109,694) and +3 standard deviations ($123,260) become possible levels of market interest as we are currently in the price discovery phase. It should be.
bearish scenario
+1 Lost standard. The current divergence at $96,129 could be bearish as it has lost an important level.
RELATED: NFT sales soar, driven by stubby penguin in record week
AAVE – AAVE
Fibonacci extensions from previous all-time highs to the latest lows of 2022 allow AAVE to develop these key levels.
Source: Tradingview
bullish scenario
If we continue to see sponsorship from bulls, we expect the ratio to trend towards 0.618 and then reaccumulate towards 0.786 next time.
bearish scenario
If it is weak near the midpoint of the range, it may fall back to the lows before heading higher.
ONDO Finance – ONDO
Using Fibonacci extensions for ONDO again, we are considering the following attack plan.
Source: TradingView – ONDO/USDT
bullish scenario
Having broken above the golden Fibonacci level of 0.618, we can now hope that higher goals are achievable.
bearish scenario
If there is any weakness at these highs and a failure to rebound, the price could move back toward the middle of the range.
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