Bitcoin’s all-time high near $100,000 is seeing resistance as the rally slows. MicroStrategy's recent Bitcoin purchases contrast with fears of a large-scale selloff after the US government transferred US$2 billion worth of Bitcoin to exchanges. The Golden Cross indicator suggests that a significant market rally could occur by early 2025, sending Bitcoin towards a new peak.
Bitcoin's quest to US$100,000 is becoming a difficult one, at least if you're as impatient as most people. We came very close to that too, reaching an all-time high of US$99,655 (AU$153,890) on November 23rd.
Related: Altcoin season is here, analyst explains how to turn $1,000 into $10,000
Since then, it has been trading within a narrow range, touting new highs and breakthroughs, but we haven't reached them yet. After Trump's rally, it looked like the stock would quickly reach $100,000, but the bulls have struggled to break through that barrier and it appears to have stalled.
Multiple factors influencing Bitcoin price
There has been strong interest from institutional investors, and Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy has just amassed more BTC while pitching the coin to Microsoft, but the US government has announced that it will be selling US$2 billion (A$3 billion) worth of Bitcoin. There are also concerns about transferring it to an exchange.
This is likely a selling move and could scare investors given the large amount. There has also been an altcoin boom, with assets like XRP, ADA, and LINK rising over 30%, likely due to investors rotating their allocations.
Chris Newhouse, director of research at the Cumberland Institute, told Bloomberg:
While we are seeing strong buying pressure from institutional investors, particularly from companies like MicroStrategy's Continuous Accumulation Strategy, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is seeing capital from both institutional and non-institutional participants. Diversification of flows is occurring.
Chris Newhouse, Cumberland Institute
Even Bitcoin's $100,000 price point is proving difficult to surpass, with US$384 million (A$594 million) worth of BTC sold to reach that goal.
However, the increase in illiquid supply, which has increased by 185,000 BTC in the past 30 days to a record high, indicates strong holding behavior among long-term holders and hints at potential upward price pressure.
Analysts believe Bitcoin will do well in the months ahead
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts believe the path to success is clear and within reach within the next month or two.
A golden cross of the SOPR ratio indicator, which only occurs in bull markets, has appeared. This signal only occurs once or twice in an entire bull cycle, and is the second positive signal in the current bull cycle that began in January 2023.
cryptoquant
They added that the appearance of a golden cross in the market typically indicates a strong rally within two months, and is likely to indicate a sharp rally as the upcycle approaches its final stage.
Related: US Spot Bitcoin ETF closes November with record inflows
They analyzed that as 2024 draws to a close and the beginning of 2025 approaches, an expected surge could attract new investment and capital, pushing the market to a peak.
