A new forecast market chart from Polymarket paints a volatile picture for Bitcoin enthusiasts who are counting on former President Donald Trump to build a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days of 2025.
The chart shows a sharp decline in market confidence, with the “yes” side currently sitting at a meager 27% probability – a dramatic 32% drop in the last few days.
Source: Polymarket
Volatility in the numbers
The Polymarket Data summarizing predictions about whether Trump will create a US Bitcoin reserve illustrates a turbulent mood. The initial optimism in early November saw the market swing by nearly 50% due to speculation and high-profile crypto policy endorsements. However, the continued decline below 30% signals skepticism, perhaps fueled by the former president’s mixed track record on cryptocurrencies.
A story of contradictory narratives
Despite the increasing global acceptance of Bitcoin, Trump has been ambivalent about digital currencies in the past. During his presidency he marked Bitcoin as a “fraud” and favored a strong dollar over decentralized alternatives. However, the crypto industry speculated about a shift in his stance as several GOP figures, including pro-Bitcoin advocates, gained influence in the party.
Adding to the intrigue is the total betting volume of $1.5 million – evidence of how polarizing and risky this prediction has become. The wavering line in the chart suggests that traders are navigating a minefield of political signals, macroeconomic trends, and the possibility of regulatory overreach.
Crypto markets react
The Polymarket trend is consistent with recent bearish movements Bitcoin…
