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As the end of the year approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to set new highs, setting up bullish expectations for the rest of the cycle. Bitfinex's latest report hints at when BTC's peak will come and how much upside is left in the flagship cryptocurrency.
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Bitcoin's “unique” cycle
In its latest Alpha report, Bitfinex highlighted that this year's significant advances in cryptocurrency industry adoption and mainstream awareness are what distinguish this cycle from previous cycles.
In particular, the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased demand from institutional investors have exceeded expectations, attracting a “new class of investors” to the crypto space.
According to the report, these new investors and increased confidence in the sector brought in by ETFs will drive the price of BTC to a new ATH ahead of the halving event, making it historically the flagship cryptocurrency. It is “unique” because it led to a new high after 5-7. A few months.
The industry is also seeing increased interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, with several jurisdictions around the world considering the introduction of strategic Bitcoin reserves following the recent performance of the flagship cryptocurrency. We are considering it.
According to Bitfinex analysts, these factors have kept BTC's correction smaller than in other cycles, and this trend is likely to continue in the upcoming bull market.
The current bull cycle, which started in mid-to-late 2023, has seen smaller corrections in Bitcoin, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. We expect this trend to continue and continue into the future as institutional investors and ETF demand provide consistent buying pressure. Corrections are limited and may be of short duration.
Additionally, the arrival of a crypto-friendly US administration has increased bullish sentiment surrounding the industry, leading to large post-election rallies. As a result, the cryptocurrency market has grown 130% year-to-date (year-to-date), with a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, an increase of nearly 70% in the quarter.
What’s next for Bitcoin in this cycle?
The report noted Bitcoin's performance, highlighting its 573% rise from its 2022 low of $15,487. The flagship cryptocurrency also posted a 130% year-to-date (year-to-date) increase, driven by the industry's achievements this year.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 barrier for the first time, and on Monday it brought a new ATH closer to the $110,000 level. Bitfinex says the cryptocurrency still has room for some higher levels in 2025, as historical data shows the market is mid-cycle.
This data suggests that BTC price is likely to peak around the third and fourth quarters of 2025, as BTC prices tend to peak around 450 days after the halving. Masu. Meanwhile, indicators such as Market Capitalization to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Gain/Loss (NUPL), and the Bull Bear Market Indicator show that while we are still in a bullish phase, we are far from the peak of the euphoria.
Bitfinex also explained that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective at timing cycle highs, predicting peaks over a three-day window. Predictions from the last cycle indicate that Bitcoin could peak between mid-2025 and early 2026.
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If the 2021 cycle pattern follows, BTC price could rise 40% to $339,000, peaking around June or July 2025. Nevertheless, the report notes that leading cryptocurrencies tend to experience declining returns throughout the cycle.
Based on this, the price of Bitcoin could instead rise by 15% to 20% to a range of $160,000 to $200,000. However, if the cryptocurrency mirrors the 2017 cycle pattern, BTC's rally could be extended to January 2026, peaking at $229,000, and similar gains could decline.
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.
Bitcoin 1 week chart performance. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
